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2010, domestic steel price trend

According to the fourth quarter of 2009, steel demand and market price trend analysis, the first quarter of 2010 is expected to affect steel demand remains relatively stable situation, by high levels of inventory and other factors, steel prices in the 2009 fourth quarter to keep the average price level, price volatility in the range of 200 yuan / ton, into the second quarter, as countries imposed restrictions on production, will drive steel prices rose about 400 yuan / ton, with the social stock of consumption, three-quarter will continue to rise about 400 yuan / ton, in changes in the fourth quarter as demand and other factors, steel prices are expected to cut about 600 yuan / ton. 2010 steel prices from the overall trend prediction analysis, the average price of steel in 2010 than in 2009 the average price of about 500 yuan / ton. Specific analysis as follows: 
First, the domestic steel industry macro brief 
According to the National Bureau of Statistics data showed that 9 months before the profits of medium-sized steel enterprises fell by 77.65% year on year. China Steel Association said that steel companies benefit greatly reduced mainly due to lower steel prices impact sales, production costs because the supporting role, steel prices dropped further gradual reduction of space 
1, the overall surplus of domestic steel production capacity 
October 22 National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data show that in September the domestic output of 50.71 million tons of crude steel, up 28.7%, the output of the second year a record high; in September to reach 1.69 million tons daily output level for the all-time high. According to the current estimated 2009 domestic crude steel output will reach 598 million tons, China 2010 is expected to reach 710 million tons of steel production capacity, production and demand more obvious contradictions. 
2, changes in steel profits 
Since the fourth quarter of 2008 since the emergence of the domestic steel industry for 7 months, industry-wide losses of varying degrees, starting from May 2009, the steel industry as a whole to end deficits, in July the monthly profits of steel industry reached 10.6 billion yuan, recovered to pre-crisis levels. But after the fourth quarter, subject to the constraints of steel market and industry price competition among steel prices have continued to drop in the state, the steel industry profits will stand the risk of further decline in the steel industry's profits in turn facing a severe test. 
3,2010 impact on iron ore for steel 
China Steel Association on the upcoming negotiations on iron ore imports in 2010 to establish new mechanisms, including the pricing period for the financial year in China, unified iron ore FOB prices, large favorably, do not blindly follow the basic principles of pricing in other countries. Prior to 2009 in China's iron ore negotiations, China Steel Association has made only 35% of FMG half a price reduction agreement. 
The three firms said that the year 2010 to-2011 iron ore prices will rise 30% -35%, this price is difficult to be accepted in China. China is currently the largest new round of capital, remains a fundamental oversupply of iron ore to judge. China Steel Association, said the Secretary-General Shan Shang China, in 2009 China may be the world's iron ore imports more than 60% of the iron ore trade in iron ore prices is directly related to the basic cost of steel products and prices, high iron ore prices will compress the profitability of steel mill space and even cause a loss. In fact, China's steel industry losses this year's corporate few, these losses are indeed buying the iron ore price is too high. China Steel Association will build a firm platform for the Chinese model of iron ore negotiations, but it takes a long time to achieve. 
4, domestic steel price trend 
From the cold and hot 价格走势图 see the end of 2008, steel prices are the lowest price that year, in January 2009 a wave of rising prices (average rose about 300 yuan / ton), 2-April arrival of imported concentrate resources on the market inventory of resources pressure, steel prices fell for 3 consecutive months. 

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